Last week SUSRIS reported on the latest round of criticism directed at Iran and its quest to enrich nuclear materials. [Iranian Nuclear Aspirations Target of Renewed Criticism] The comments came from Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal at a press conference in Riyadh:
“The Iranian nuclear file was among the topics that was discussed in our meeting [with the Austrian Foreign Minister], especially in light of the lack of response by Iran to diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving this crisis peacefully and removing the doubts that surround it to ensure the peaceful use of the program in accordance with the criteria and procedures of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and under its supervision.”
The concern about Iran’s nuclear challenge to America’s Gulf allies will be among the chief concerns on the agenda of Secretary of State John Kerry as he launches his first trip abroad in his new post next week on stops in European and Gulf nations. It will also be the agenda before the P5-1 group, the UN Security Council Permanent Five nations plus Germany, as they engage Iran in negotiations in Kazakhstan next week.
The concerns about negotiations and diplomacy aside, there are issues of deterrence and warfighting, if deterrence fails, that concern the leaders in Washington and the Gulf nations. This week we were pleased to see the latest publication from Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, to address the challenge from Iran. It is an essential document for your reference library to provide background, context, facts and figures, and assessments key to Gulf security considerations. In addition to the expansive and comprehensive reference materials dealing with the Iranian threat and Gulf states’ warfighting capabilities, Cordesman also addresses other GCC security concerns as he outlined in his introductory remarks.
“Each of the Arab Gulf states face major challenges in terms of its stability and security interests – only some of which can be addressed by creating more effective military forces, security forces, alliances within the Gulf, and alliances with outside powers. These challenges vary from country to country, but they include religious extremism and terrorism; asymmetric and missile threats from Iran; internal sectarian, ethnic, and tribal divisions; the need to deal with massive demographic pressures and a “youth bulge” that requires the creation of massive numbers of jobs and new social infrastructure; and the need for stable political and social evolution to avoid political upheavals that can do as much or more to disrupt reform and modernization as to achieve it.”
For your consideration we provide today Dr. Cordesman’s “Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation,” including his introductory remarks and links to the full report. We commend to your inspection a very long list of reference materials — articles, interviews, assessments and more — from, with and about Dr. Cordesman acculumated in the ten year’s since SUSRIS was launched and some materials from previous releases. Check the “Additional Information” files below.
Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation
Anthony H. Cordesman
Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
February 19, 2013
The US and its Arab Gulf allies face the steadily increasing threat that some form of conflict may occur with Iran in the coming years, and accordingly, they must develop the most effective possible deterrent to Iran’s military ambitions. The Arab Gulf states are already making major progress in developing suitable deterrent and war fighting capabilities which offer the best hope of pushing Iran into meaningful negotiations, as well as containing it in any conflict if it begins.
There is, however, much more that the Arab Gulf states can do to exploit their vast superiority in military spending and arms imports, and to make their forces effective. The Burke Chair is issuing a new study of how these improvements can be made, of how the Arab Gulf states can create a more effective approach to collective security as part of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and of how the US can adjust its strategy to become a more effective partner. This study is entitled Securing the Gulf: Key Threats and Options for Enhanced Cooperation. It is available on the CSIS web site at LINK.
The study’s contents include:
INTERNAL STABILITY AS THE FOUNDATION OF ALL OTHER ASPECTS OF SECURITY
COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTERNAL SECURITY
EXTERNAL THREATS: THE PERIPHERY AND IRAN
–Iranian Asymmetric and Irregular Warfare Threats
–Iranian Conventional Military Threats
–Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Air and Air Defense Resources
–Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Naval Resources
–Iranian vs. Arab Gulf Land Resources
–Iraq as the Wild Card
–Iranian Long-Range Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction
–Iran’s Longer-Range Missile Forces
–Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction
–Reinforcing the Strengths of the Arab Gulf States
THE SEARCH FOR UNITY IN THE ARAB GULF
PRESSURES FOR GREATER UNITY
AREAS OF GROWING COOPERATION
ARAB GULF STATE SECURITY COOPERATION WITH THE US, THE UK, AND FRANCE
–Making Effective Use of Vastly Superior Resources
–Further Efforts to Strengthen Interoperability, Integration, and the GCC
PLANNING AND INTEROPERABILITY
–Create a GCC Force Planning Exercise
–Create a Standardization and Interoperability Committee and Staff
–Create a Technology and Procurement Committee and Staff
–Create a Working Group on Arms Control
COORDINATE LOGISTICS, SUSTAINABILITY, AND READINESS
BUILDING COMMON TRAINING AND EXERCISE CAPACITY
–Survey Training Facilities to determine how to ensure best use on a GCC-wide basis
–Focus on Key Contingencies
COMMAND, CONTROL, COMMUNICATIONS, COMPUTER, INTELLIGENCE (C4I), SENSOR, AND BATTLE MANAGEMENT (BM SYSTEMS
–Create a Fully Integrated Air and Surface-to-Air Missile Unit Control and Warning System
–Create a Fully Integrated Maritime Surveillance System
–Create a Joint Intelligence Center
GCC Net Assessment Group
PREPARING FOR MISSILE AND WMD THREATS
–Areas For Improved Planning and Dialogue
–Create a Joint, Integrated Missile Defense System
FOCUSING ON OTHER KEY MISSION AREAS
–Iraq, the Iraqi Border and Kuwaiti “Hinge”
–Yemen Border Security and Threats
–Mine, Anti-Submarine (ASW), and Naval Asymmetric Warfare
–Strait/Gulf of Oman/Indian Ocean/Red Sea/Horn of Africa
IMPROVING INTERNAL SECURITY EFFORTS
–GCC Identity Cards, Passport Data
–A GCC-wide Intelligence Effort for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Popular Unrest
–GCC Internal Security Center
–Common Counterterrorism Training
–Common Police and Crowd Control Standards and Training
–A GCC-Wide Rapid Reaction Forces for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Violent Unrest
IMPROVING ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE SECURITY: PASSIVE DEFENSE
CREATING MORE EFFECTIVE COOPERATION WITH POWER PROJECTION FORCES OUTSIDE THE GCC
–Partnership with Europe (UK and France)
–Partnership with the US
ENCOURAGING STABILITY THROUGH ECONOMIC, EDUCATIONAL, AND SOCIAL MEASURES
–GCC Domestic and Foreign Labor Policies
–Setting Common Social and Economic Standards/Goals
–Building Dignity, Trust, and Faith in Government Integrity
–Creating GCC Study and Planning Efforts
THE IMPORTANCE OF INTEGRATED CIVIL-MILITARY SECURITY EFFORTS
This study draws on two detailed analyses of the military balance in the Gulf. Part One — the analysis of the asymmetric and conventional balance in the Gulf, US and Iranian competition, and US strategic interests in the region — is now available on the CSIS web site: This study is entitled: US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions, and is now available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/program/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition.
Part II- covering Iran’s missile forces, nuclear developments, and Israeli and US options for preventive strikes and containment has also been updated. It is entitled US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions and is available on the CSIS web site at http://csis.org/program/us-and-iranian-strategic-competition.
Other recent studies in this series include a study entitled Patterns of Violence in Iraq, http://csis.org/publication/patterns-violence-iraq, and the following additional studies on U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition, http://csis.org/program/burke-chair-strategy.
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change – Examines the impact of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Iran’s energy sector, and the prospects for regime change in Tehran.
Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability – Examines the role Iran has played in Iraq since 2003, and how the US has tried to counter it.
U.S.-Iranian Competition in the Levant: Parts I & II – Examine the changing military balance in the region; US and Iranian interests in Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Syria; and the internal stability of each state in a time of political upheaval.
The United States and Iran: Competition involving Turkey and the South Caucasus – Analyzes the US and Iranian competition over influence in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan – Examines the important role Iran plays in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, and how the US and Iranian rivalry affects Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia – Examines the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran and the US.
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Competition Involving the EU, EU3, and non-EU European States – Examines the role the EU, and in particular the EU3, have played as the U.S.’s closest allies in its competition with Iran.
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: Peripheral Competition Involving Latin America and Africa – Examines the extent and importance of the competition between the US and Iran in the rest of the world.
- Iranian Nuclear Aspirations Target of Renewed Criticism – SUSRIS – Feb 13, 2013
- Iran Says Nuclear Talks an ‘Opportunity’ for West – ABCnews – Feb 20, 2013
About Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman
Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. He is a recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Service Medal. During his time at CSIS, he has completed a wide variety of studies on energy, U.S. strategy and defense plans, the lessons of modern war, defense programming and budgeting, NATO modernization, Chinese military power, the lessons of modern warfare, proliferation, counterterrorism, armed nation building, the security of the Middle East, and the Afghan and Iraq conflicts. (Many of these studies can be downloaded from the Burke Chair section of the CSIS Web site at LINK.) Cordesman has directed numerous CSIS study efforts on terrorism, energy, defense panning, modern conflicts, and the Middle East. He has traveled frequently to Afghanistan and Iraq to consult for MNF-I, ISAF, U.S. commands, and U.S. embassies on the wars in those countries, and he was a member of the Strategic Assessment Group that assisted General Stanley McChrystal in developing a new strategy for Afghanistan in 2009. He frequently acts as a consultant to the U.S. State Department, Defense Department, and intelligence community and has worked with U.S. officials on counteterrorism and security areas in a number of Middle East countries.
Before joining CSIS, Cordesman served as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as civilian assistant to the deputy secretary of defense. He directed the analysis of the lessons of the October War for the secretary of defense in 1974, coordinating the U.S. military, intelligence, and civilian analysis of the conflict. He also served in numerous other government positions, including in the State Department and on NATO International Staff. In addition, he served as director of policy and planning for resource applications in the Energy Department and as national security assistant to Senator John McCain. He had numerous foreign assignments, including posts in the United Kingdom, Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran, as well as with NATO in Brussels and Paris. He has worked extensively in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
He is the author of a wide range of studies on energy policy, national security, and the Middle East, and his most recent publications include (CSIS, 2010), Iraq and the United States: Creating a Strategic Partnership (CSIS, 2010), Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region (Praeger, 2009), Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race? (Praeger, 2009), Withdrawal from Iraq: Assessing the Readiness of Iraqi Security Forces (CSIS, 2009), and Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces (CSIS, 2009).
Articles and Interviews on SUSRIS by and with Anthony Cordesman
- AUSPC 2012: Defense Cooperation Dynamics: Enhancing Regional Security – Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS – Nov 8, 2012
- Iranian Nuclear Weapons Breakout: The New IAEA Report – SUSRIS – Sep 1, 2012
- Reassessing the Gulf Military Balance: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Jul 12, 2012
- The Gulf Military Balance in 2012 – Cordesman – SUSRIS – May 21, 2012
- U.S. Strategy in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Apr 18, 2011
- Understanding Saudi Stability and Instability – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Mar 1, 2011
- AUSPC Panel: Defense Cooperation – SUSRIS – Oct 26, 2010
- US-Saudi Security Cooperation, Impact of Arms Sales – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Sep 17, 2010
- The New Saudi Arms Deal – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Sep 17, 2010
- Nuclear Reality in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Jul 22, 2010
- Saudi Arabia and Gulf Security – Cordesman – SUSRIS – May 18, 2010
- Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – Oct 10, 2009
- Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare – Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz – SUSRIS – Aug 31, 2009
- Regional Defense: A Need for Credibility, Effectiveness and Transparency (AUSPC 2008)- Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS – Dec 8, 2008
- Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership By Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS – Dec 4, 2008
- Security Cooperation in the Gulf – SUSRIS – Nov 22, 2008
- The US, Israel, the Arab States and a Nuclear Iran – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Oct 10, 2008
- Conventional Armed Forces in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Aug 23, 2008
- President Bush’s Trip to the Middle East – Briefing by Anthony Cordesman and Jon Alterman of CSIS – SUSRIS IOI – May 14, 2008
- Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf – SUSRIS – Mar 28, 2008
- The Gulf Arms Sales: A Background Paper – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Feb 5, 2008
- Security Cooperation in the Middle East – Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Nov 27, 2007
- Saudi Military Modernization – A Conversation with Anthony Cordesman – Interview – Nov 23, 2007
- Weapons of Mass Preservation – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Aug 20, 2007
- Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Mar 27, 2007
- Global Energy Security – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Nov 15, 2006
- The Impact on Saudi Regional Stability – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Aug 2, 2005
- Saudi Arabia and the Struggle Against Terrorism by Dr. Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Apr 11, 2005
- Why Reforge the U.S. and Saudi Relationship? An Interview with Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Sep 28, 2004
- The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 1 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
- The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 2 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
- The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 3 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
- The 9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and Weaknesses – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – Jul. 29, 2004
- Developments in Iraq at the End of 2003: Adapting U.S. Policy to Stay the Course,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 7, 2004
- “Four Wars and Counting: Rethinking the Strategic Meaning of the Iraq War,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 5, 2003
- “Iraq: Too Uncertain to Call,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 18, 2003
- Saudi Redeployment of the F-15 to Tabuk – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – November 1, 2003
- “Iranian Security Threats and US Policy: Finding the Proper Response,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October 28, 2003
- “What is Next in Iraq? Military Developments, Military Requirements and Armed Nation Building,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, August 22, 2003
- Saudi Government Counterterrorism: Counter Extremism Actions – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS -August 4, 2003
- “Saudi Arabia: Don’t Let Bin Laden Win!”, by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-American Forum Item of Interest, May 16, 2003
- “Postwar Iraq: The New Old Middle East,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 16, 2003
- “Iraq’s Warfighting Strategy,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, March 11, 2003
- “Reforming the Middle East: President Bush’s Neo-Con Logic Versus Regional Reality,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, February 27, 2003
- “The Great Iraq Missile Mystery,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, February 26, 2003
- “Iraq Security Roundtable at CSFS: A Discussion With Dr. Anthony Cordesman,” Center for Strategic and Future Studies, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2003
- “A Coalition of the Unwilling: Arms Control as an Extension of War By Other Means,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 25, 2003
- “Is Iraq In Material Breach? What Hans Blix, Colin Powell, And Jack Straw Actually Said,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 20, 2002
- “Saudi Arabia: Opposition, Islamic Extremism And Terrorism,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 1, 2002
- “Planning For A Self-Inflicted Wound: U.S. Policy To Reshape A Post-Saddam Iraq,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 24, 2002
- “The West And The Arab World – Partnership Or A ‘Clash Of Civilizations?’” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 12, 2002
- “Strategy In The Middle East: The Gap Between Strategic Theory And Operational Reality,” by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October 22, 2002
- “A Firsthand Look At Saudi Arabia Since 9-11,” GulfWire’s Interview With Dr. Anthony Cordesman In Saudi Arabia, GulfWire Perspectives October 10, 2002
- “Escalating To Nowhere: The Israeli And Palestinian Strategic Failure,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 8, 2002
- “Reforging The U.S. And Saudi Strategic Partnership,” by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2002