Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare – Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz

August 31, 2009

Editor’s Note:

The Burke Chair in Strategy, held by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies released a briefing on Gulf security that will be of great interest to SUSRIS readers. “Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities in the Gulf: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare,” authored by Dr. Cordesman and Adam Seitz, provides a comprehensive understanding of the threats in the Gulf that challenge U.S. and Saudi defense and security establishments. We commend it for your review and addition to your Gulf information resource bookmark list. This SUSRIS item provides the introduction and link to the complete report, an update to a report circulated earlier this year.

Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare
Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz

While much of the world has focused on Iran’s missile developments and possible nuclear capabilities, this is only one of the risks that threaten the flow of petroleum products from the Gulf – a region with some 60% of the world’s proven conventional oil reserves and 40% of its natural gas. Far more immediate threats have emerged in terms of asymmetric warfare, terrorism, piracy, non-state actors, and other threats.

The Burke Chair at CSIS has developed a new briefing that provides an overview of these threats, showing current trends and highlighting the strategic geography involved. This brief looks beyond Gulf waters and examines the problems created by Iran’s ties to other states and non-state actors throughout the region. It highlights Iran’s capabilities for asymmetric warfare, but it also examines the threat from terrorism and the role it can play in nations like Yemen. It looks at the trends in piracy and in the threat in the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean.

The key issues addressed are:

  • Terrorism;
  • Asymmetric Warfare;
  • Maritime and Border Security;
  • Combating Piracy;
  • Critical facilities and Infrastructure;
  • Role of Chokepoints; and
  • Role of State and Non-State Actors

Countermeasures include:

  • Prepare for all types of threats, and full spectrum of terrorism and asymmetric warfare;
  • Jointness and inter-ministry cooperation;
  • Regional and international cooperation
  • Focus on both active and passive defense;
  • Broad, non-compartmented situational awareness with real world operational response – critical value of IS&R and C4I;
  • Intelligence Cooperation
  • Gaming and “red teaming”
  • Design civil and commercial facilities and infrastructure for deterrence and defense.

This briefing is entitled Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Asymmetric Warfare, and can be found on the CSIS web site [click here].

This report is the third report in a series of three. The two previous reports in the series are available on the CSIS website:

“Iran Status Report: Iran and the Challenges to US Policy” [click here]

“GCC-Iran: Operational Analysis of Air, SAM and TBM Forces” [click here]

Additional work on Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities and the threats they pose to regional security are available at [click here]

In addition, a new CSIS/Praeger book on Iranian military forces and Iran’s missile and WMD programs, entitled “Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction” will be published in September, 2009.

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Anthony H. Cordesman

About Anthony H. Cordesman

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News. He is a recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Service Medal. During his time at CSIS, he has completed a wide variety of studies on energy, U.S. strategy and defense plans, the lessons of modern war, defense programming and budgeting, NATO modernization, Chinese military power, the lessons of modern warfare, proliferation, counterterrorism, armed nation building, the security of the Middle East, and the Afghan and Iraq conflicts. (Many of these studies can be downloaded from the Burke Chair section of the CSIS Web site at http://www.csis.org/program/burke-chair-strategy.) Cordesman has directed numerous CSIS study efforts on terrorism, energy, defense panning, modern conflicts, and the Middle East. He has traveled frequently to Afghanistan and Iraq to consult for MNF-I, ISAF, U.S. commands, and U.S. embassies on the wars in those countries, and he was a member of the Strategic Assessment Group that assisted General Stanley McChrystal in developing a new strategic for Afghanistan in 2009. He frequently acts as a consultant to the U.S. State Department, Defense Department, and intelligence community and has worked with U.S. officials on counteterrorism and security areas in a number of Middle East countries.

Before joining CSIS, Cordesman served as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as civilian assistant to the deputy secretary of defense. He directed the analysis of the lessons of the October War for the secretary of defense in 1974, coordinating the U.S. military, intelligence, and civilian analysis of the conflict. He also served in numerous other government positions, including in the State Department and on NATO International Staff. In addition, he served as director of policy and planning for resource applications in the Energy Department and as national security assistant to Senator John McCain. He had numerous foreign assignments, including posts in the United Kingdom, Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran, as well as with NATO in Brussels and Paris. He has worked extensively in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

He is the author of a wide range of studies on energy policy, national security, and the Middle East, and his most recent publications include (CSIS, 2010), Iraq and the United States: Creating a Strategic Partnership (CSIS, 2010), Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region (Praeger, 2009), Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race? (Praeger, 2009), Withdrawal from Iraq: Assessing the Readiness of Iraqi Security Forces (CSIS, 2009), and Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces (CSIS, 2009).

Source: CSIS

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Full List of Anthony Cordesman’s Publications (Source: CSIS) [LINK HERE]

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Articles and Interviews on SUSRIS by and with Anthony Cordesman

[GulfWire Articles are being added to SUSRIS. Please check Dr. Cordesman's SUSRIS page for updates.]

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Tagged as: anthony cordesman, csis, energy, intelligence, iran, piracy, terrorism

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