Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership By Anthony Cordesman

Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership
By Anthony Cordesman

The US faces major problems in restoring its reputation and strategic partnerships all over the world. Every opinion poll that has addressed the subject has shown that the last eight years have done immense damage to America’s position. There are few areas, however, where US action is more urgent than in the Gulf and in dealing with Saudi Arabia.

The US has now agreed to withdraw from Iraq. There never was a significant chance that Iraq would emerge as a stable strategic partner, and it is now clear that any degree of partnership will be limited and constantly subject to the uncertainties of Iraqi politics and sectarian and ethnic tensions. It has been nearly 30 years since anyone could think of Iran as a “pillar” in US security, and it is clear that even the most successful dialog with Iran will still leave the need to deter and defend against Iranian opportunism in the Gulf. The worst case is a nuclear-armed Iran that seeks some form of regional hegemony.

The US has made little, if any, progress against global religious extremism and terrorism since 9/11. The only question is whether Al Qa’ida is marginally stronger or weaker operating out of Pakistan in 2008 than it was in operating of Afghanistan on 9/11.

Campaign promise and pundits aside, the US will remain directly dependent on massive energy imports well beyond 2030, and equally dependent on a global economy fueled by Gulf oil. The flow of oil, gas, and petroleum exports not only requires the security of key exporting states; it requires the security of regional pipelines and shipping routes. These not only involve the security of the Persian Gulf, but the Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean, and Red Sea. Piracy has now joined the risk of conventional and asymmetric warfare in threatening the region.

This makes understanding Saudi national security and its strengths and weaknesses a critical priority for the new Administration, the new Congress, and the US. The US has valuable relations with Egypt, Israel, and Jordan. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman all offer key bases and strategic facilities. Only one state, however, has the geographic position, military forces, strategic depth, and common interests to be a key strategic partner in the Gulf. The US needs Saudi Arabia as much as Saudi Arabia needs the US.

The US needs to understand what it can do to rebuild and strengthen its relations with Saudi Arabia as it reshapes its entire strategic position in the region. It needs to understand Saudi concerns and capabilities, the key security problems and threats the Saudis face, the nature of US and Saudi engagement, and the broader range of problems that the US must deal with to restore its reputation in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world.

The Burke Chair has prepared a draft briefing, entitled Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership, drawing on research in Saudi Arabia and consultation with US and Saudi officials. This briefing addresses all of these issues and is available on the CSIS web site.

The briefing will be revised over time, and comments and suggested changes would be most helpful. These can be addressed to acordesman@gmail.com. The briefing will also be followed by a book on Saudi National Security. A review draft will be circulated during the coming month.

***

About Anthony H. Cordesman

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS and acts as a national security analyst for ABC News. He is a recipient of the Department of Defense Distinguished Service Medal. During his time at CSIS, he has completed a wide variety of studies on energy, U.S. strategy and defense plans, the lessons of modern war, defense programming and budgeting, NATO modernization, Chinese military power, the lessons of modern warfare, proliferation, counterterrorism, armed nation building, the security of the Middle East, and the Afghan and Iraq conflicts. (Many of these studies can be downloaded from the Burke Chair section of the CSIS Web site at http://www.csis.org/program/burke-chair-strategy.) Cordesman has directed numerous CSIS study efforts on terrorism, energy, defense panning, modern conflicts, and the Middle East. He has traveled frequently to Afghanistan and Iraq to consult for MNF-I, ISAF, U.S. commands, and U.S. embassies on the wars in those countries, and he was a member of the Strategic Assessment Group that assisted General Stanley McChrystal in developing a new strategic for Afghanistan in 2009. He frequently acts as a consultant to the U.S. State Department, Defense Department, and intelligence community and has worked with U.S. officials on counteterrorism and security areas in a number of Middle East countries.

Before joining CSIS, Cordesman served as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and as civilian assistant to the deputy secretary of defense. He directed the analysis of the lessons of the October War for the secretary of defense in 1974, coordinating the U.S. military, intelligence, and civilian analysis of the conflict. He also served in numerous other government positions, including in the State Department and on NATO International Staff. In addition, he served as director of policy and planning for resource applications in the Energy Department and as national security assistant to Senator John McCain. He had numerous foreign assignments, including posts in the United Kingdom, Lebanon, Egypt, and Iran, as well as with NATO in Brussels and Paris. He has worked extensively in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

He is the author of a wide range of studies on energy policy, national security, and the Middle East, and his most recent publications include (CSIS, 2010), Iraq and the United States: Creating a Strategic Partnership (CSIS, 2010), Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region (Praeger, 2009), Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Birth of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race? (Praeger, 2009), Withdrawal from Iraq: Assessing the Readiness of Iraqi Security Forces (CSIS, 2009), and Winning in Afghanistan: Creating Effective Afghan Security Forces (CSIS, 2009).

Source: CSIS

***

Full List of Anthony Cordesman’s Publications (Source: CSIS) [LINK HERE]

***

Articles and Interviews on SUSRIS by and with Anthony Cordesman

• U.S. Strategy in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Apr 18, 2011
• Understanding Saudi Stability and Instability – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Mar 1, 2011
• AUSPC Panel: Defense Cooperation – SUSRIS – Oct 26, 2010
• US-Saudi Security Cooperation, Impact of Arms Sales – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Sep 17, 2010
• The New Saudi Arms Deal – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Sep 17, 2010
• Reality in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Jul 22, 2010
• Saudi Arabia and Gulf Security – Cordesman – SUSRIS – May 18, 2010
• Saudi Arabia: National Security in a Troubled Region – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – Oct 10, 2009
• Gulf Threats, Risks and Vulnerabilities: Terrorism and Assymetric Warfare – Anthony H. Cordesman and Adam C. Seitz – SUSRIS – Aug 31, 2009
• Regional Defense: A Need for Credibility, Effectiveness and Transparency (AUSPC 2008)- Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS – Dec 8, 2008
• Saudi National Security and the Saudi-US Strategic Partnership By Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS – Dec 4, 2008
• Security Cooperation in the Gulf – SUSRIS – Nov 22, 2008
• The US, Israel, the Arab States and a Nuclear Iran – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Oct 10, 2008
• Conventional Armed Forces in the Gulf – Cordesman – SUSRIS – Aug 23, 2008
• President Bush’s Trip to the Middle East – Briefing by Anthony Cordesman and Jon Alterman of CSIS – SUSRIS IOI – May 14, 2008
• Security Challenges and Threats in the Gulf – SUSRIS – Mar 28, 2008
• The Gulf Arms Sales: A Background Paper – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Feb 5, 2008
• Security Cooperation in the Middle East – Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Nov 27, 2007
• Saudi Military Modernization – A Conversation with Anthony Cordesman – Interview – Nov 23, 2007
• Weapons of Mass Preservation – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Aug 20, 2007
• Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Mar 27, 2007
• Global Energy Security – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Nov 15, 2006
• The Impact on Saudi Regional Stability – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Aug 2, 2005
• Saudi Arabia and the Struggle Against Terrorism by Dr. Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Apr 11, 2005
• Why Reforge the U.S. and Saudi Relationship? An Interview with Anthony Cordesman – SUSRIS IOI – Sep 28, 2004
• The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 1 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
• The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 2 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
• The Prospects for Stability in 2004 — The Issue of Political, Economic and Social Reform – Anthony H. Cordesman – Part 3 – SUSRIS – Feb. 23, 2004
• The 9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and Weaknesses – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – Jul. 29, 2004
• Developments in Iraq at the End of 2003: Adapting U.S. Policy to Stay the Course,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 7, 2004
• “Four Wars and Counting: Rethinking the Strategic Meaning of the Iraq War,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 5, 2003
• “Iraq: Too Uncertain to Call,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 18, 2003
• Saudi Redeployment of the F-15 to Tabuk – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS – November 1, 2003
• “Iranian Security Threats and US Policy: Finding the Proper Response,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October 28, 2003
• “What is Next in Iraq? Military Developments, Military Requirements and Armed Nation Building,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, August 22, 2003
• Saudi Government Counterterrorism: Counter Extremism Actions – Anthony H. Cordesman – SUSRIS -August 4, 2003
• “Saudi Arabia: Don’t Let Bin Laden Win!”, by Anthony H. Cordesman, Saudi-American Forum Item of Interest, May 16, 2003
• “Postwar Iraq: The New Old Middle East,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 16, 2003
• “Iraq’s Warfighting Strategy,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, March 11, 2003
• “Reforming the Middle East: President Bush’s Neo-Con Logic Versus Regional Reality,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, February 27, 2003
• “The Great Iraq Missile Mystery,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, February 26, 2003
• “Iraq Security Roundtable at CSFS: A Discussion With Dr. Anthony Cordesman,” Center for Strategic and Future Studies, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2003
• “A Coalition of the Unwilling: Arms Control as an Extension of War By Other Means,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 25, 2003
• “Is Iraq In Material Breach? What Hans Blix, Colin Powell, And Jack Straw Actually Said,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 20, 2002
• “Saudi Arabia: Opposition, Islamic Extremism And Terrorism,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, December 1, 2002
• “Planning For A Self-Inflicted Wound: U.S. Policy To Reshape A Post-Saddam Iraq,” by Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 24, 2002
• “The West And The Arab World – Partnership Or A ‘Clash Of Civilizations?’” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, November 12, 2002
• “Strategy In The Middle East: The Gap Between Strategic Theory And Operational Reality,” by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, October 22, 2002
• “A Firsthand Look At Saudi Arabia Since 9-11,” GulfWire’s Interview With Dr. Anthony Cordesman In Saudi Arabia, GulfWire Perspectives October 10, 2002
• “Escalating To Nowhere: The Israeli And Palestinian Strategic Failure,” By Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, April 8, 2002
• “Reforging The U.S. And Saudi Strategic Partnership,” by Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, GulfWire Perspectives, January 28, 2002

[GulfWire Articles are being added to SUSRIS. Please check Dr. Cordesman's SUSRIS page for updates.]

Tagged as: defense, foreign policy, foreign relations, relationship, saudi arabia, security